The Nasdaq index came under pressure last Thursday after spending much of the week battling its 200-hour moving average (green line on the chart below). Throughout the end of June and into early July, buyers repeatedly pushed above that key technical level, but only by a modest margin. Buyers had their shot. They missed. Each breakout attempt quickly lost momentum, leaving the index unable to establish a foothold above the moving average.
Ahead of the long U.S. holiday weekend, sellers finally seized control. A break below the 100-hour moving average, then at 25,992.69, triggered a sharp selloff that extended to a low near 25,651 before bargain hunters helped lift prices into the close.
Today’s session opened with renewed buying interest, pushing the index back above the 100-hour moving average (now near 25,992.67). The rally extended to 26,209.76, briefly carrying the price back above the 200-hour moving average near 26,200. However, the same pattern that has defined recent trading quickly resurfaced. Momentum faded, and the index has slipped back below the 200-hour moving average, currently trading near 26,169.
From a technical perspective, the roadmap remains clear. If buyers are going to regain control, they need to break above and stay above the 200-hour moving average. A sustained move above that level would shift the focus to the next resistance zone between 26,560 and 26,788, an area defined by several swing highs and swing lows dating back to mid-May.
Conversely, if the index cannot reclaim the 200-hour moving average and then falls back below the 100-hour moving average near 25,992, the recent recovery attempt will likely unravel. That would encourage buyers to become sellers, with the first downside target at Thursday’s low near 25,650. A break below there would expose the June swing-low area between 24,913 and 25,109.
Buyers are making another play. This time, they need to finish the job. The key will be whether they can generate enough momentum to hold above the 200-hour moving average—or whether this becomes another case of “Buyers had their shot. They missed.”
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