• Most of labour market indicators show stability in market
• We should be careful taking payroll job number drop as an indicator of job market (unemployment rate is a better indicator now)
• Mild cooling in labour market
• The unemployment rate is basically unchanged
• There’s a little downside risk to the labor market
• There’s a lot of stability
• Recession starts are not usually low hiring and low firing
• Low hiring and low firing is character of an uncertain environment
• There’s very little private sector information about inflation, it will be some time before we see any problems
• We can’t count on inflation being transitory
• Consumer spending and growth is strong
• I am more uneasy about rate cuts without inflation data
• For data to go dark right at the moment we saw services inflation rising is uncomfortable
• Not hawkish on rates
• The settling point for rates will be a fair bit below where it is today
• I lean more to “when it’s foggy lets be careful and slow down”
• Lack of inflation data accentuates caution on rate cuts

Goolsbee has been leaning more on the hawkish side for months despite supporting a couple of rate cuts due to the weakness in labour market data (when we had it).

Goolsbee is a voter this year and he’s clearly saying here that if we don’t get the CPI data before the next FOMC meeting, he won’t support another rate cut.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.



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