The USDCAD trended higher over the past six trading days, reaching a high of 1.41398 yesterday after rising from a low of 1.3887 six days ago. However, momentum has since slowed, with the bias shifting slightly in favor of the Canadian dollar as markets reacted to Supreme Court arguments suggesting that the justices may curb the president’s authority to impose tariffs unilaterally—a decision expected early next year.

In my post late yesterday, I outlined the key downside targets that sellers would need to break to regain control:

• The October high at 1.4071

• The rising 100-hour moving average (blue line, currently near 1.40729)

• A swing area between 1.4060 and 1.40668

Today’s low reached 1.4090, about 11 pips short of the first target, before rebounding back above 1.4100. When a high forms after a strong trend, the burden of proof shifts to sellers—they must push below key technical levels to reclaim control. While some sellers from yesterday’s highs may still be holding modest gains, they have not yet established firm technical control, leaving them uneasy and buyers still in command.

The current pullback marks the largest corrective move since the start of the rally, but until those downside levels give way, it remains just that—a correction within a broader bullish trend. Stay alert.