• June final CPI +3.2% vs +3.2% y/y prelim
• Prior +3.2%
• June final HICP +3.6% vs +3.6% y/y prelim
• Prior +3.6%
• Core CPI +2.9% y/y
• Prior +3.0%

Spanish inflation holds steady in June, with headline annual inflation coming in unchanged at 3.2% as in May. Core annual inflation did ease on the month, although just marginally, down to 2.9% from 3.0% in May.

With core prices continuing to hold well above the 2% mark, it’s no time to be taking the eye off the prize just yet. This is one spot the ECB has to be mindful of, alongside the likes of Germany.

But at the balance, the June reading here when put together with other euro area economies is still affording the ECB some flexibility in pausing in July. And with the US-Iran war restarting, the real question turns to what policymakers will be doing in September instead.

The fact that oil prices and yields are ticking higher again will reaffirm that stagflation risks aren’t so easily going to be cast aside for the remainder of the year.

Here is a look at Spain’s inflation trend in the past year: