• Prior was +57K (revised to +20K)
• Two-month net revision -103K
• May was +129K
• Unemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.2% expected
• Prior unemployment rate 4.2%
• Unrounded unemployment 4.0900% vs 4.1889% prior
• Participation rate 61.4% vs 61.5% prior
• U6 underemployment rate 7.9% vs 7.9% prior
• Average hourly earnings +0.1% m/m vs +0.3% expected
• Average hourly earnings +3.2% y/y vs +3.5% expected
• Average weekly hours 34.3 vs 34.3 expected
• Change in private payrolls +30K vs +78K expected
• Prior private payrolls +49K (revised to +30K)
• Healthcare supplied
• Change in manufacturing payrolls +30K vs +4K expected
• Government payrolls -53K vs +8K prior

Ahead of the data, USD/JPY was trading at 158.33 and Fed funds futures were pricing in a 57% chance of a rate hike in September. USD/JPY is quickly down to 157.13 and rate hike odds are at 44%. Compounding the decline in USD/JPY was a comment from Japanese finance minister Katayama who said he agreed with Bessent that forex markets have been affected by moves not backed by real demand.

At first blush, the jobs report isn’t as bad as the headline. Huge losses in government jobs and the unemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.2% expected. On the downside, that’s a big two-month net revision and it st arts to look like a much weaker trend. Fed officials will also highlight that the wage numbers were soft.

Deeper in the report, teen unemployment alone fell 167,000, from 907k to 740k and that’s doing the heavy work on the unemployment rate with their jobless rate now 12.1% from 14.6%. Among people 20+, the unemployment rate stayed at 3.8%.

There continues to be a big US problem with people droppping out of the labor force as 264K left in July and since May the US labor force has fallen by 984K.

In terms of the headline, the three-month average is now just 20K given all the revisions. Leisure and hospitality fell 40k, including -26.1k at food services/drinking places, which could be a World Cup hangover. However with the revisions, it’s not like the World Cup added many jobs during the run-up to the event.