Details of the latest consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan, for the month of November 2025:

• Final Oct was 53.6
• Current conditions 52.3 vs 59.2 expected (prior was 61.0)
• Expectations 49.0 vs 50.3 expected (prior was 51.2)
• 1-year inflation 4.7% vs 4.6% prior
• 5-year inflation 3.6% vs 3.7% prior

The headline is the lowest reading since June 2022 as it was narrowly below the Liberation Day lows. It’s safe to say that the government shutdown isn’t helping. The inflation expectations numbers are mixed but I’d put a heavier weight on the longer term number ticking lower.

The US dollar has sagged on this reading with the euro as the main beneficiary, it’s up 40 pips to 1.1579.