The USDs fall fizzles. The declines are retraced and then some


Traders appeared willing to give the CPI data the benefit of the doubt, particularly with housing accounting for roughly two-thirds of the overall increase. The initial market reaction sent the U.S. dollar lower, but across many of the major currency pairs, the dollar’s decline quickly ran into key technical levels.

A number of those levels could not be breached. When the breaks failed, the price action began to reverse, with the U.S. dollar moving back higher. As a result, several of the major pairs have now returned to — or even moved through — the levels where they were trading before the CPI release.

In the video above, I take another look at EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCHF and USDCAD, reevaluating what happened after the CPI report, what didn’t happen technically, and where the bias, risk and targets now stand for each of the major currency pairs.

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields remain lower on the day, although they have moved off their session lows:

  • 2-year: 4.188%, -2.9 basis points
  • 5-year: 4.358%, -2.6 basis points
  • 10-year: 4.668%, -1.6 basis points
  • 30-year: 5.231%, -3.3 basis points

U.S. stocks also remain higher, but have backed off their best levels of the session:

  • S&P 500: +0.23%
  • NASDAQ Composite: +0.46%
  • NASDAQ 100: +0.82%
  • Dow Industrials: unchanged on the day

The post-CPI moves have therefore lost some of their initial momentum, with the dollar recovering, Treasury yields trimming their declines, and equities giving back part of their earlier gains.



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