- Prior was +0.2%
- Ex autos -0.3% vs +0.2% exp
- Ex gas and autos -0.2% vs +0.4% prior
- Retail control -0.4% vs +0.3% exp
- Retail sales y/y nominal 5.01% vs +6.72% prior
The thinking is that the US consumer will continue spend so long as the jobs market holds up but this report dents that view. I’d caution that it’s only one report. The negative reading on the control group is the first one since September 2025 and follows a string of good numbers.
Deeper in the data, a big drag is motor vehicles and parts, down 1.8% m/m and eectronics were also lower by 0.5%. There was some upside in building materials up 0.3% and food services and drinking places up 0.5%, no doubt due to the World Cup. There might have also been a Prime Day hangover with sales at non-store retailers down 2.2% m/m.
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