- Regional activity -22.0 vs -10.6 prior (lowest since June)
- New orders -2.2 vs -10.1 prior
- Sales/revenues 6.8 vs 7.9 prior
- Full-time employment 19.0 vs 2.1 prior (highest since June 2022)
- Part-time employment 10.7 vs 1.1 prior
- Prices paid 37.8 vs 29.2 prior
- Prices received 20.0 vs 10.3 prior (highest since June)
- Wage and benefit costs 40.7 vs 39.2 prior
- Avg workweek 8.5 vs -13.4 prior
- Capex equipment & software 33.0 vs 8.8 prior
- Six-month firm activity outlook 20.3 vs 12.4 prior
- Six-month regional outlook 2.0 vs -6.3 prior
This is a second-tier survey, but some of the internals are striking. The full-time employment index jumped 17 points to its best level in more than four years, with 27% of firms adding staff, up from 14% in August. That doesn’t fit with the narrative of a low-hire, low-fire labor market, even though it’s only one regional survey with a small sample. Some of the forwards indexes also improved.
On the flipside, new orders and the overall headline were soft, while prices paid/received are ratcheting higher again. That’s no surprise given economic resilience and energy prices.
In the special questions, 55% of firms expect Q3 revenue to rise over Q2 versus 24% expecting a decline, which is a decent quarter on balance. Energy markets are cited as a constraint by 63% of firms, down from 83% last quarter, but 57% expect that squeeze to worsen over the next three months. Uncertainty remains the top concern: 79% call it at least a slight constraint, and 29% call it significant.
Capex plans are the positive. The equipment and software index nearly quadrupled to 33.0, and physical plant capex rose to 22.9. Firms that are spending on both people and machines aren’t bracing for a downturn, whatever they say about the region.
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