Singapore exports grow solidly but miss forecasts as electronics outpace other sectors.

Summary:

• January NODX rose 9.3% y/y, below expectations of 12.1%.

• Electronics led gains, driven by integrated circuits and disk media.

• Non-electronics exports declined, highlighting uneven sector performance.

• Exports to China, Hong Kong and EU rose, while US and Indonesia shipments fell.

• Forecasts recently upgraded, with 2026 NODX seen at 2%–4% growth.

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose 9.3% year-on-year in January, extending the recovery in trade flows but falling short of market expectations for a 12.1% increase.

The expansion was driven primarily by electronics, with strong gains in integrated circuits and disk media products. In contrast, non-electronics exports contracted, highlighting the uneven nature of the rebound across sectors.

The latest figures come just days after authorities upgraded both growth and export forecasts for 2026, following stronger-than-expected economic momentum at the end of 2025. Fourth-quarter GDP expanded 6.9% year-on-year and 2.1% quarter-on-quarter, prompting policymakers to lift the 2026 GDP growth outlook to 2%–4%, from 1%–3% previously. Enterprise Singapore also raised its full-year NODX forecast to 2%–4%, up from 0%–2%.

January’s export performance suggests that trade momentum remains intact, though not accelerating as quickly as some had anticipated. Among key markets, shipments to China, Hong Kong and the European Union increased compared with a year earlier. However, exports to the United States and Indonesia declined, pointing to persistent pockets of softness in external demand.

The divergence between electronics and non-electronics categories underscores Singapore’s continued reliance on the global semiconductor cycle. Demand linked to artificial intelligence investment and advanced manufacturing remains a supportive factor, but broader trade conditions appear more mixed.

While the 9.3% growth rate represents a solid start to the year, the miss relative to expectations may temper enthusiasm following the recent upgrades to official forecasts. Even so, with policymakers projecting improved global demand conditions and continued resilience in manufacturing and trade-related services, Singapore’s export sector appears positioned for moderate expansion through 2026 — albeit with risks from external demand fluctuations and geopolitical uncertainty still in play.