The sources cited note that there is currently no evidence of a diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran on the horizon. At this stage, the report says that Trump’s military and rhetorical build-ups is going to prove tough to back down from, especially if without any major concessions from Iran regarding its nuclear program.

This means that a call for military conflict might not just be a bluff, with “all signs point to him pulling the trigger if talks fail”.

The report adds that any military operation in Iran will be massive, involving a weeks-long campaign that would resemble a full-fledged war. That as opposed to the swift strike that was conducted in Venezuela last month.

Adding to this, two Israeli sources are cited in saying that they are “preparing for a scenario of war within days”. It could just be words to stoke the fire on the situation but a Trump adviser cited also says that “I think there is 90% chance we see kinetic action in the next few weeks” and that “the boss is getting fed up”.

The full report can be found here.

Oil prices are picking up slightly on the headlines here, with WTI crude now up 1% on the day to $62.95. The bounce also coincides with yet another test of the 200-day moving average, following yesterday’s drop.

Besides that, we’re not seeing much other broader market moves. But if we are to see an escalation in the geopolitical rhetoric here, it will just bring us back full circle to how the market responded to the Venezuela situation last month.

No certainty on the US administration in their handling of geopolitical policy? Check. Heightened tensions and conflict stirred up by the US? Check.

That will pile on the dollar debasement narrative once more and could be what precious metals need to break out of the current funk.