Yesterday oil and gold prices sank after Iran’s foreign minister had an upbeat take following meetings with US officials but today a leak is sending the opposite signal.

• WTI crude oil is up $2.18 to $64.51
• Gold is up $121 to $4998

The gains — and a US dollar rally — have been driven in part by persistent reports of a buildup of military hardware in Iran. Axios also reports today with a report “Trump moves closer to a major war with Iran.”

It says that the Trump administration and Israel may be on the verge of a major military conflict with Iran, potentially within days or weeks. It says a US-Israeli campaign would far exceed recent operations, resembling full-scale war rather than targeted strikes. A massive military buildup is underway, including two aircraft carriers, dozens of warships, hundreds of fighter jets, and over 150 cargo flights delivering weapons to the region.

Diplomacy continues but appears stalled. Kushner and Witkoff met Iran’s foreign minister in Geneva, but the report says gaps remain wide and US. officials are not optimistic. US officials said after Tuesday’s talks that Iran needs to come back with a detailed proposal in two weeks., echoing a similar deadline last June that ended in military strikes days later.

That gives us some sense of the timeline here.

Trump’s extensive buildup has raised the stakes, making it difficult for him to back down without significant Iranian concessions on its nuclear program.Here is a key quote:

“The
boss is getting fed up. Some people around him warn him against going
to war with Iran, but I think there is 90% chance we see kinetic action
in the next few weeks,” one Trump adviser said.

Israel is reportedly preparing for war within days, pushing for a maximalist approach including regime change.

All that said, you have to wonder why this is being deliberately leaked. Ravid is a mouthpiece for Washington and Tel Aviv and I suspect this is being put out there to add pressure on Iran.

The talk isn’t going away though. I hate geopolitical oil trades but if there’s one, it’s to buy the rumor and sell the fact. That would mean buying oil soon and being prepared to get out of the way if/when the bombs start falling.