The major US indices are opening mixed with the Dow industrial average down -0.37%. The S&P index trading above and below unchanged, and the NASDAQ index up around 0.20%.

As a reminder The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to release opinions this morning, with announcements typically issued at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on scheduled opinion days. While there is no guarantee that the tariff decision will be included in today’s releases, markets will be closely watching that 10:00 a.m. ET window as the most likely time for any ruling if it is delivered today. If the decision is not issued, additional opinion release days are scheduled for next week.

If the Supreme Court delivers a decision on tariffs, the implications could be meaningful across trade policy, inflation expectations.

From a macro standpoint, a ruling that upholds the administration’s tariff authority would reinforce the use of tariffs as an active policy tool. That could:

• Support domestic pricing power, especially in protected industries

• Add to inflationary pressures at the margin via higher import costs

• Complicate the Fed’s disinflation path, potentially keeping rate-cut expectations pushed out

• Lift U.S. yields, which tends to be USD-supportive

In contrast, a ruling that limits or strikes down tariff authority would likely be viewed as:

• Disinflationary over time, by reducing trade frictions and input costs

• Growth-positive globally, improving trade flows and supply chains

• Potentially USD-negative, as it could ease inflation risks and lower the need for restrictive monetary policy

From a market perspective, the decision could introduce:

• Sector-level volatility (industrials, autos, metals, agriculture)

• Equity rotation depending on tariff exposure

• Commodity price reactions, especially in metals and energy

• FX sensitivity, with trade-linked currencies (like CAD and MXN) reacting to changes in cross-border trade outlooks