The USD initially moved lower following the Supreme Court’s 6–3 decision striking down the Trump administration’s IEEPA tariff authority. The greenback sold off in the immediate aftermath as markets reacted to the removal of tariff-related price pressures. However, the reaction has been mixed across asset classes.
U.S. yields have pushed higher — with the 10-year up around 2.3 basis points — amid concerns that tariff revenues may now need to be reimbursed, potentially widening the fiscal deficit. On the other hand, the elimination of tariffs is seen as easing some inflationary pressure at the margin.
U.S. equities are higher with the Dow up 0.21%, the S&P up 0.30% and the Nasdaq up 0.40%. .
Looking at the major currencies, EURUSD has moved higher and is now trading above the 1.1765–1.1778 swing area, shifting short-term bias modestly in favor of the buyers. The next upside target comes in at the falling 100-hour moving average near 1.1809. A break above that level would begin to tilt control back toward the bulls after the pair has remained below the 100-hour MA (blue line) since February 12.
The USDJPY has rotated lower to test its 100-day moving average at 154.84 — a key technical level for near-term direction. After moving back above the 100-day MA on Wednesday, the pair traded mostly above that level yesterday, aside from a brief failed break during midday trading. Today, the price slipped just below the MA to a low of 154.81 after the decision, before rebounding back higher, currently trading near 155.02.
For sellers to gain more meaningful control, the price will need to move back below — and remain below — the 100-day MA. Adding to the technical significance, the 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range at 154.956 is also in play, reinforcing this area as a key battleground for short-term bias (see yellow area on the chart below).
The USDCHF has moved lower, rotating back into a key swing area defined between 0.77298 and 0.7740. The pair dipped to a low of 0.7730, just above the lower bound of that zone, and is currently trading within the range near 0.7736.
For sellers to maintain downside momentum, the next targets come in at the rising 100-hour moving average near 0.77225 and the rising 200-hour moving average at 0.77042. A move below — and sustained break of — these levels would strengthen the bearish bias.
Adding to the downside case, the 38.2% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 0.7769 capped the upside earlier today, coming in near the session high. From a technical standpoint, a sustained move back above that retracement level would be needed to shift confidence back toward buyers. Notably, a similar attempt to break above that level in late January into early February ultimately failed to gain traction.
The USDCAD has moved lower but, so far, continues to find support at its 100-hour moving average near 1.3667. The pair initially moved above the 100-hour MA back on February 12 at 1.3582, and momentum carried the price to a high of 1.3715 yesterday before entering a consolidation phase over the past two days.
Both yesterday and today, the pair briefly pushed above the 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range, but was unable to sustain gains above that level. On the downside, the low reached 1.3667 yesterday and 1.3669 so far today — keeping the 100-hour MA firmly in focus.
This moving average now stands as a key near-term support level. A break below — and sustained move under — the 100-hour MA would tilt the short-term bias more in favor of sellers.
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