Details:

• Composite manufacturing index fell to -10 in February from -6 in January. Estimate was -8

• Shipments dropped to -13 from -5 last month

• New orders decreased to -9 from -6 lat month

• Employment edged down to -7 from -6 last month

• Local business conditions index declined to -15 from -8 last month

• Prices paid and received growth rates slowed in February to 6.52 from 7.06 last month

• Prices received also slowed to 4.25 from 4.58 last month

• Capital expenditures rose to -5 from -16 last month

• Services expenditures -20 versus -16 last month

• Firms expect further moderation in price growth over the next 12 months**

6 month forward expectations:

• Future local business conditions improved to 22 from 19

• Future shipments and new orders eased slightly but remained solidly positive. Shipments fell to 29 from 34. New orders fell to 35 from 36 las mont

• Employment expectations rose to 6 from 2 last month

The regional index remains in the negative for the index. The 3 month average has not been above the 0 level since 2022.

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index serves as a monthly “pulse check” for the industrial sector across the Mid-Atlantic region, covering Maryland, Virginia, the Carolinas, D.C., and most of West Virginia. It is a composite indicator derived from three key pillars: new orders, shipments, and employment levels. A reading above zero indicates expansion, while a reading below zero signals contraction. Because this district represents a diverse slice of American industry, the index is widely watched by economists and investors as a “canary in the coal mine” for the broader U.S. manufacturing economy, often providing early signals of shifting demand or supply chain trends before national data is released.