FX Kickstart: Major Pairs Stalled in “Non-Trending” Ranges

The US Dollar is starting the North American session on a mixed note. While the Greenback is lower against the Yen, it has found some footing against the Euro and Pound. Greg Michalowski highlights a market currently lacking a clear trend, with price action largely dictated by key hourly moving averages and established swing zones.

EURUSD: The Battle for the 100-Hour MA

The Euro is caught in a tug-of-war as sellers attempt to keep the price below the 100-hour moving average.

• Support: A critical “floor” exists in the swing area between 1.1765 and 1.1778. Buyers have consistently defended this zone.

• Resistance: The falling 200-hour moving average remains the primary hurdle for bulls.

• Outlook: Until the price can break and sustain a move outside this range, the bias remains neutral-to-bearish as it stays below its short-term averages.

USDJPY: Accelerating Past Resistance

Following volatility sparked by the Bank of Japan and comments from the Prime Minister, USDJPY is showing signs of upside momentum.

• Key Pivot: The area between 156.20 and 156.28 is the primary “risk-defining” level. Staying above is more positive/bullish.

• Technical Shift: The pair recently broke above a top-side trendline, suggesting an acceleration of the move toward the February highs.

• Other Support: The 61.8% retracement level provided a solid base during the recent consolidation. That level comes in at 155.592

GBPUSD: Trapped Between Averages

Cable is mimicking the EURUSD’s non-trending behavior, oscillating between its 100 and 200-hour moving averages.

• Resistance: A well-defined “yellow” swing zone and the 200-hour moving average are capping gains. A break above 1.3536 is needed to open the door for further upside.

• Support: The 100-hour moving average is currently acting as the near-term floor.

• Outlook: Traders are leaning against the edges of the weekly range (high vs. low). A clean break above 1.3536 or below the 100-hour MA will determine the next short-term “shove.”

Traders’ Note: In these “non-trending” environments, the lines are well-established. Traders are finding success “leaning” against these MAs for small pip gains, but the real move starts once the market breaks out of these confined ranges.