The escalating blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered significant supply concerns, sending crude oil prices on a vertical tear. Prices have surged over 8.5% in today’s session, reclaiming levels not seen since mid-2025 as the market tests the critical $77.57 resistance zone.

While sellers have initially defended this level, a clean break above it would likely shift the market’s focus toward the $80 psychological handle as the next primary target.

Respecting the Trend

When a market enters a high-conviction trend, traders must prioritize price action over personal bias. Trends are typically fast, directional, and frequently overshoot what feels “reasonable.”

To manage risk effectively, consider the following:

• Don’t Fight the Tape: In a parabolic move, the burden of proof is on the bears.

• Wait for a Shift: Until sellers can reclaim key technical levels and force a structural breakdown, the buyers remain in firm control.

• The Market’s Verdict: Successful trading isn’t about what should happen; it’s about what the collective global market is actually doing.

In the video below, I break down the crude oil chart and outline the specific technical “fail points” that would signal a shift in momentum. We use price action tools to clearly define our bias, risk parameters, and upcoming targets.