EUROPEAN SESSION

In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than the final Eurozone Q4 GDP report. This is very old data by now, so the market reaction will be muted. In fact, we are almost at the end of Q1 2026 and what happens next with the US-Iran war will shape the future data. That’s why the focus is on the war.

AMERICAN SESSION

In the American session, the main highlight is going to be the US NFP report. We also get the January US Retail Sales, but that’s old and volatile data that the market will largely ignore. The NFP is expected to show 55K jobs added in February vs 130K in January, and the Unemployment Rate to remain unchanged at 4.3%. The Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y is expected at 3.7% vs 3.7% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.3% vs 0.4% prior.

The US jobs data we got up until now has been positive and suggesting a stabilisation in the labour market after the weakness seen in 2025. The expectations seem skewed to the downside, but I can’t see why. There’s been clear improvement across many data points. The US economy has been re-accelerating since the start of the year and not slowing down further.

I’m not sure today’s NFP is going to matter much for the market given the focus on the US-Iran war and the surge in energy prices. Nonetheless, strong data could trigger some further hawkish repricing as Fed’s Waller mentioned that he might change his mind on the labour market if we get another good report.

CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS

• 12:30 GMT/07:30 ET – Fed’s Waller (dovish – voter)
• 13:30 GMT/08:30 ET – ECB’s Cipollone (neutral – voter)
• 13:30 GMT/08:30 ET – Fed’s Daly (dovish – non voter)
• 15:15 GMT/10:15 ET – Fed’s Paulson (dovish – voter)
• 16:30 GMT/11:30 ET – Fed’s Schmid (hawkish – non voter)
• 17:00 GMT/12:00 ET – ECB’s Schnabel (neutral – voter)
• 18:20 GMT/13:20 ET – Fed’s Collins (neutral – non voter)
• 18:30 GMT/13:30 ET – Fed’s Hammack (hawkish – voter)
• 18:30 GMT/13:30 ET – RBA’s Hauser (hawkish – voter)