No surprises there as the index drops off amid the initial impact of the US-Iran conflict. I would expect investor sentiment to worsen further if given the chance to see another survey after the latest surge in oil and gas prices. For some context, the survey here was conducted from 5 March to 7 March. Sentix notes that the decline here was the “first indication of the economic situation following the outbreak of the Iran war”.

Adding that:

“This casts considerable doubt on the recent upturn in the EU. The energy price shock and geopolitical risks are dampening the previously increased optimism for the Eurozone economy.”

The expectations index also fell sharply from 15.8 in February to 3.5 in March. Meanwhile, the current situation index showed a modest decline from -6.8 last month to -9.5 this month.

Well, the surge in TTF gas prices has been unkind to Europe in the past and this may just be the start. At around €60/MWh, it’s the highest since January 2023 and that is after prices have cooled following the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It’s a far cry from the heights seen during that particular conflict three years ago though, which peaked at €346/MWh.