Markets:

• WTI crude oil up $22.15 to $113.10 per barrel
• US 10-year yields up 6.8 bps to 4.20%
• Gold down $73 to $5097
• USD leads, EUR lags
• Gold down $69 to $5100
• Nikkei down 7.0%
• Kospi halted after 8% decline
• ASX 200 in worst day since covid, down 4.3%

The weekend war news wasn’t good. Strikes on 30 Iranian oil storage depots on the weekend, followed by Iran retaliation at oil sites and water desalination plants are forcing conclusions that this war has spiralled out of control. In addition, Netanyahu, Trump and Hagseth are repeatedly saying that harsher strikes are yet to come.

The problem is that 20 million barrels per day of the 105 million burned daily in the world comes through the Strait of Hormuz and it’s effectively closed. There is no way to replace that kind of production and it appears to be worsening with Iraq, Kuwait and other shutting in major supplies as there are no ships to retrieve them. If full shutdowns occur, it could take some time to restart and the oil market is also sensing that.

In any case, it set off a rush to secure oil today or hedge needs. It was entirely one way with oil breaking the 24% one-day record gain from near the bottom in covid. It rose as much as 30% and is currently sitting at 25%. Trump tweeted about oil prices, saying they will rapidly come down after Iran abandon’s nuclear weapons.

The Trump message I think is notable because abandoning nuclear weapons is an off-ramp for Iran, and something they had previously offered in negotiations. If Trump is framing that as the goal — rather than ‘unconditional surrender’ as he did on Friday, then there might be a path to a ceasefire.

Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of
the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for
U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK
DIFFERENTLY! President DJT

It’s all guessing though now and — clearly — no one is taking the other side of the oil trade.

Every other market is an offshoot of oil, natural gas and the macro effects of losing so much of it. Major importers like Japan and Korea are seeing massive pain in their equity markets, which were the darlings of the world for the past year.

All eyes are on the TACO trade, which is feeling like it could come sooner than the 4-5 week war timeline Trump initially set.