US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth held a briefing at the Pentagon today and said:

• Today will be the hardest day of strikes yet
• Iran yesterday fired its lowest amount of missiles
• Iran made a big mistake by targeting neighbours
• Objectives are to destroy Iran’s navy and defense industrial base
• Iran stands alone and is badly losing

Separately, a top US general said the US is looking at options if it’s tasked with escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

Eyes are mostly on Trump after yesterday’s re-framing of the 4-5 week timeline, saying they’re far ahead of that. That was clearly a TACO due to the drop in stock markets and jump in oil. In response, we saw the mother of all reversals in the crude market. Today that’s continued with WTI down $3.91 to $90.85.

But $90.85 isn’t exactly cheap and is still a problem for inflation and the global economy. The market is giving the US some credit for its ability to claim a victory and move on.

Note this message from Ali Larijani, who is Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran

Strait of Hormuz will either be a Strait of peace and prosperity for all or will be a Strait of defeat and suffering for warmongers.

Now that partly reads like a threat but it’s also a plea for peace. The bull case on oil is that the US declares victory and moves on but Iran decides the fight isn’t over and continues to attack tankers in the strait. This message doesn’t sound like that’s going to be the case.

All that said, there is a strong consensus emerging that the US has no interest in regime change or even the 4-5 week bombing campaign that Trump hinted from the outset. Of course, there seems to be some reflexivity in play and if stock markets don’t fall and oil prices don’t rise, then Trump might maintain his nerve.