The AUDUSD has pushed to a new high for 2026, breaking above the February peak at 0.7146 and reaching a session high of 0.7155. However, after the breakout, the price has rotated back lower and is now trading just below that prior high, creating the risk of a failed breakout if buyers cannot maintain momentum.

For now, the technical picture still favors the buyers as long as the pair can hold above the recent swing levels at 0.7135 and 0.7121. Those levels represent prior resistance that should now act as support. Staying above them keeps the bullish bias intact, while a move below would likely disappoint buyers and could trigger a shift in sentiment at least in the short term, with former buyers turning into sellers. There is additional downside targets at the 200 hour MA and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart near 0.7060.

In additional to technicals, the fundamentals are also helping support the upside in the pair. The broader risk tone in markets is more positive, with U.S. stocks extending gains after yesterday’s late-session reversal higher. The Nasdaq is up about 141 points (0.62%), while the S&P 500 and Dow are also trading higher, reinforcing the risk-on backdrop that tends to benefit the Australian dollar.

At the same time, U.S. yields are moving lower, which is also providing a tailwind for AUDUSD. The 10-year yield is down about 2.1 basis points to 4.112%, well off yesterday’s high of 4.214%. Lower yields typically weigh on the U.S. dollar and can help support higher-beta currencies like the Aussie.

The RBA meets next week. The bottom line for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is that policy is likely to remain tight with a slight bias toward additional tightening, but the central bank is not committed to a fixed path. After the February rate hike, policymakers signaled that inflation risks remain elevated and progress toward the 2–3% target is not yet secure, meaning further tightening cannot be ruled out.

Adam just posted with more reasons. You can read his post HERE