Well, it’s not a surprise given that the G7 leaders’ meeting is lined up right after. It is a mere formality now as they look to just finalise the details and nuances in getting this done.

The Reuters headline is saying that the IEA will announce its recommendation at 1300 GMT on releasing oil from its strategic reserves. It cites two sources with knowledge of the discussions. Adding that the release may total 400 million barrels. That seems to be on the upper end of the expected estimate. But as I mentioned earlier, it is not the total amount that really matters when it comes to looking at this move by the IEA.

From earlier:

“We already know that they are touting a big, big number. That somewhere along the lines of 300 million to 400 million barrels in total. But again, the main focus should be on how they plan on navigating that figure.

As mentioned before, it could still take weeks for this oil supply to make its way to refineries and that is what markets need to consider.

Sure, the total amount seems staggering and much more than even what we saw in the 2022 oil market crisis (roughly 240 million barrels by both the US and IEA combined).

However, just be mindful that the release of these oil supply and barrels will be in stages. So, there are going to be many questions to factor in.

• How many barrels is the IEA going to draw down from its reserves in the first few weeks?
• How quickly can these barrels make its way to transport and be shipped to where it needs to go?
• What is the mix in crude quality that will be involved with the release?
• Who is going to handle all the logistics and make sure that these barrels can reach refineries in a timely manner?
• Are refineries able to handle the sudden surge when they all come at one go?

It’s not as simple as saying that the 300 million to 400 million barrels will cover everything. There’s a lot more to it and that will be what really influences the outlook for the oil market as the Middle East conflict stretches on for longer.”