• Preliminary data shows wage momentum at small, medium-sized firms could be better than past years
• Will still turn to Rengo’s first round survey
• There is no gap in understanding on inflation between government and BOJ

The headline remark is modestly hawkish and if not for the US-Iran conflict, it could easily be used to tee up the next rate hike. For now, this is one that still opens up that door for the BOJ but it still is no guarantee for a move in April. So, we’ll see.

USD/JPY dipped down from 159.65 to 159.25 before bouncing back now to 159.45 on the day. The 100-hour moving average holds at 159.29 for the moment.

But just a reminder, the last time we were trading above the 159.00 level after the BOJ press conference was back in January. And that was the same day when Tokyo officials called a ‘rate check’ to drive USD/JPY lower. Will we see something similar today?