The USDCAD pushed higher into the European session, breaking above last Friday’s high and testing the early March peak near 1.3752. However, the rally stalled just short of that level, with today’s high reaching 1.37476, before rotating back to the downside. The inability to extend above that key resistance area is a short-term disappointment for buyers, especially with momentum fading near the highs.

The subsequent pullback saw price move back below the 1.37149–1.37243 swing area, before extending down to test the rising 100-hour moving average at 1.37044. Importantly, this level has now held on three separate tests, including two from yesterday and one today—highlighting its importance as a near-term support and risk-defining level.

Technical outlook: 100-hour MA holds the key

With the price continuing to hold above the 100-hour moving average, the bias remains tilted to the upside in the short term. As long as buyers can defend this level, they remain in control. A move back above 1.3724 would re-open the path toward the recent highs between 1.37409 and 1.3752, and a break above that zone would signal a potential extension higher, with room to run toward the yearly high near 1.3928.

On the downside, a break below the 100-hour MA at 1.37044 would shift control back to sellers, with downside targets at 1.3687 (yesterday’s low) and 1.3679 (Tuesday’s low). A move below those levels would increase bearish momentum and expose deeper retracement levels of the broader move higher.

Bottom line:

• Above 100-hour MA → buyers in control

• Below → sellers regain momentum in the short term with work to do toward other downside targets.

• 1.3752 remains the key breakout level to unlock further upside