The USDCAD has continued to show buying interest on dips, with the pair finding support against its 100-hour moving average in both the early Asian session and again during the early European session. That moving average — currently at 1.37258 — has become a key short-term barometer for buyers and sellers.

So far, buyers are leaning against that level and holding control.

However, if sellers are to regain momentum, they would need to break and stay below the 100-hour moving average. Doing so would shift the short-term bias more to the downside and open the door for a deeper correction.

Looking below that level, there are additional layers of support that traders will be watching closely:

• The 200-hour moving average at 1.3701
• An upward sloping trendline from the March low, which was tested at yesterday’s session lows and attracted buyers
  • That trendline now comes in near 1.3680 and rising

These levels collectively form a defined support zone, and as long as the price remains above them, buyers can continue to argue they are in control — at least for now.

On the topside, the key focus remains on the 1.3752 level, which represents the high from early March and the highest level going back to January 23. That level has proven to be an important ceiling for the pair.

In trading yesterday, the price briefly broke above that resistance, reaching a high of 1.3754, but the breakout lacked follow-through. The move quickly reversed — in part triggered by the Trump Truth Social post — leading to a sharp rotation lower.

That failure to extend higher was the first warning sign.

In trading today, buyers made another attempt. The price moved back above 1.3752 and extended to 1.37608, but once again, momentum stalled and the pair rotated lower.

That repeated inability to sustain gains above resistance is a disappointment for buyers and suggests that upside momentum is not yet convincing.

What next?

• For buyers to take more control, they need to get and stay above 1.3752.
  • A sustained move above that level would open the door for further upside extension and signal a more confident breakout.
• If the price continues to fail above that level, the market risks slipping back into a more neutral or corrective phase, with sellers looking to push back toward the moving average support zone.

Bottom line

• Bias remains tilted to the upside, supported by buyers leaning against the 100-hour MA
• But… upside conviction is lacking, as seen in repeated failures above 1.3752
• The pair is at a decision point:
  • Above 1.3752 = momentum breakout potential
  • Below 1.3725 and especially 1.3701 = sellers regain control

In the video above, I walk through these technical levels in detail — highlighting the areas traders are watching, reacting to, and using to define risk, bias, and targets.