• I would not rush into any decision, prefer to be more cautious
• Still need to assess whether this ​should be looked through or whether we should be making a rate decision
• We don’t have sufficient information to make a decision for now
• I think we are still along the baseline
• We haven’t seen anything that points to a change in ​either the duration or the intensity of the war
• Wisdom comes with ​more information
• If you don’t have the information, then what you have is gut feeling
• And you shouldn’t be making decisions on the basis of gut ​feeling
• Policy change is on the cards at every meeting, not keen to discuss specific dates
• For now, inflation expectations are well anchored

He definitely doesn’t sound like he is eager to push for a rate hike in April. And from reading between the lines of his remarks, it seems like he would favour waiting rather than taking a more proactive step next month.

Most of his peers are maintaining optionality at least. Patsalides is also keeping that door open but the balance of his remarks reads more that he would prefer to stay put in April I would say.

In any case, markets are still pricing in some 70% odds of a rate hike for next month. And by year-end, we’re seeing ~82 bps of rate hikes priced in currently.

With the Spanish inflation report for March here, we’re seeing the first indications of higher energy prices creeping into Europe. Core prices might still be unaffected but if the war is prolonged and higher prices in general become more entrenched, that will eventually feed through. We’ve already seen that to be the case with the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the impact on prices in 2021-22.

So, it would be wrong to dismiss the potential impact of the current situation.