The USDJPY has rotated lower after failing above the 160.00 level, a key psychological and technical barrier. Recall, the pair broke above that level on Friday, reaching a high of 160.455, but the breakout lacked follow-through.
Yesterday, the price moved lower and tested an upward sloping trendline, where buyers stepped in and pushed the pair back higher. However, that bounce ran into resistance again near 160.00, with today’s Asian session high stalling just below at 159.959, within a prior swing area.
That failure to extend higher gave sellers the green light.
The pair turned back down, initially finding support at the trendline, but that support eventually gave way. The price broke below the 200-hour moving average at 159.19, and extended toward the next downside target near 158.81–158.90.
The pair is now trading between the 200-hour MA (159.19) and that downside swing area, making this a critical zone:
- Below the 200-hour MA = sellers remain in control, with downside momentum building
- Next targets: 158.89, then 158.55
- Back above 159.19 = sellers lose momentum, and the bias shifts more neutral
Bottom line:
Sellers are making a play after the failed break above 160.00. The key now is whether they can keep the price below the 200-hour moving average and build momentum lower. If they do, the door opens for a deeper correction. If not, this becomes another failed downside extension in a choppy range.
Be aware. Be prepared.
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