The USDCAD is pushing to new session highs after the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged, with the central bank signaling growing concern over a softening labor market. Inflation is expected to drift toward 3% in the near term before easing back early next year—assuming oil prices cooperate.
That assumption on oil is not helping today.
Crude oil is surging nearly 5%, driven by reports that President Trump and major oil companies are discussing contingency plans if the current blockade persists for months. The spike in oil, along with higher U.S. yields, is helping to underpin the USD broadly.
Yields are moving higher, with the 2-year up 4.7 basis points to 3.891% and the 10-year rising 4.4 basis points to 4.397%.
From a technical perspective, USDCAD has pushed above the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the March high at 1.3693, but is still struggling to gain traction above Friday’s high near 1.3715. Just above that sits the 100-day moving average at 1.3731—a key level that has capped upside since the break below on April 15.
Earlier today, the price low start just ahead of the 1st 100 and 200 hour moving averages at 1.3666 – keeping the buyers in firm control. It would take a move back below 61.8% retracement 1.3693 followed by a break of the 100 and 200 hour moving averages to tilt the bias more to the downside from a technical perspective.
Bias / Risk / Targets:
- Bias: Bullish above 1.3693, with momentum building
- Risk: Failure back below 1.3693 tilts control back to sellers
- Upside targets: 1.3715 → 1.3731 (100-day MA) → further extension on a break
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