- Prior week 214K revised to 215K
- Iniital jobless claims 189K vs 215K estimate
- 4 week moving average 207.5K vs 211.00 last week
- Continuing claims 1.785M vs 1.815M estimate. Prior 1.808M
- 4 week moving average of continuing claims 1.797M vs 1.809M
- The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending April 18 were in New York (+2,885), California (+1,590),
Tennessee (+1,562), Kentucky (+1,179), and South Carolina (+1,115), - The largest decreases were in New Jersey
(-4,280), Pennsylvania (-2,742), Virginia (-1,528), Wisconsin (-1,248), and Indiana (-1,150)
There was a spike low in Septmeber 2022 at 190K for the initial jobs claims. Other than that it looks like 1968. In early November of 1968 the number reached 181K.
For the continuing claims looks like the level is the lowest since April 2024.
The bottom line is the job market is not weak. Now there are winners and losers even in the AI universe. For the buildout, that is likely very good. From the productivity advantage from AI, it is putting people out of work.
Fewer layoffs sound good, but it not so good with higher inflation. The PCE did increase by 0.7% and the YoY moved up 3.5%. The core PCE is up 3.2% vs 3.0% last month.
That keeps the Fed out of the picture.
Strong jobs data can support stocks, but it also delays rate-cut hopes. Which do you want?
Kevin Warsh will have a difficult time cutting rates.
The Nasdaq is up 185 points. the S&P is up 38 points. TThe down is up 312 point a implied by the futures ahead of the open. Those levels are off pre-market highs.
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