• The ECB is likely to hike rates unless the outlook improves markedly

This is the exact same thing he said on Monday, so there’s nothing to see here. The ECB has already signalled that a rate hike in June is coming unless the war ends and oil prices fall significantly before then.

The market is pricing in a 72% probability of a rate hike at the next meeting. It’s not 100% because there’s still a good chance that the war really ends before then and once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, oil prices will almost surely fall quickly.

That’s why US-Iran headlines continue to be the main driver of basically every asset class. The global economy depends on the Strait of Hormuz.