• Prior week 189K revised to 190K
• initial jobs claims 200K versus 205K estimate
• 4 week moving average 203.25K vs 207.75K last week
• continuing claims 1.766M versus 1.800M estimate. Last week 1.776M (revised from 1.785M)
• 4 week moving average 1.790M vs 1.795M last week.
• The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending April 25 were in Rhode Island (+2,037), Arkansas (+1,137),
  Vermont (+348), Massachusetts (+341), and Mississippi (+269),
• The largest decreases were in New York (-10,952),
  California (-4,677), Connecticut (-2,276), South Carolina (-1,906), and Kentucky (-1,416)

The bottom line is the job market continues to show strength. Now there are winners and losers even in the AI universe. For the buildout, that is likely very good. From the productivity advantage from AI, it is putting people out of work.

Fewer layoffs sound good, but it not so good with higher inflation.

The strength in the employment and persistently higher than target inflation keeps the Fed out of the picture. Strong jobs data can support stocks, but it also delays rate-cut hopes.

Tomorrow, the US jobs report will be released with expectations of nonfarm payroll rising by 65K versus a higher than expected 178K last month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.3% (the low for all of 2025 was 4.0%).