The Official White House Rapid Response account on X has indirectly denied the Iran’s state TV MoU draft reported earlier in the session. The initial market gains have been erased anyway as Iran’s state TV also added that no agreement has been reached yet, so all in all we are still waiting for something concrete.
There’s been lots of noise recently about this Memorandum of Understanding and extra caution is needed. The signal is that nobody wants to restart the conflict, so that’s positive but it’s also largely priced in. The most important thing is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
If this situation drags on for longer, we risk going into the June FOMC meeting with oil prices still elevated and uncertainty still high. The Fed might sound more hawkish than expected in that case and the market’s reaction could be very negative.
Update:
The White House has now officially denied the report. They say “this report from Iranian controlled media is not true and the MOU they “released” is a complete fabrication. Nobody should believe what Iranian state media is putting out. FACTS MATTER”.
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