That’s an ugly look for the party that prides itself on focusing on the economy and a President that campaigned on bringing down inflation.

The combination of tariffs and the Iran war have tanked his credibility and now have Republicans talking about a new package of economic measures. That’s going to be a very tall order given that the party has divided itself with Trump and his allies defeating some long-time Republicans in Primaries, essentially leaving them as lame duck opponents while remaining in the party with razor-thin majorities.

No doubt charts like this are fuel for vulnerable Republicans who want Trump out of Iran ASAP. I think the administration has done everything it can (with some great success) to keep oil prices capped during this war but there’s a limit and we’re rapidly approaching it. Even if it ends now, I think oil will struggle to stay below $80 for the remainder of the year as inventories are rebuilt.

Bloomberg writes about the falling approval ratings today and the flailing messaging. Trump said early on the war would be over in 4-6 weeks and prices would plunge but that credibility has obviously shredded.

It’s certainly not all bad news. Last week’s US jobs report was strong and revisions made the two prior months stronger as well. The stock market also hit records last month despite the war in Iran.

The key will be inflation and this week’s CPI is likely to show prices up nearly 4% year over year. That’s a toxic number that’s going to make it impossible for the Fed to cut rates. Worse yet, it could force the Warsh Fed to hike (or signal a hike) right around the time of the November midterms.

In terms of what comes next, Trump and Republicans are facing a tough choice: Take a bad deal with Iran or risk a rout in the midterms.