Trump cites the downed helicopter.

• We want a deal that’s meaningful and works
• We’re going to hit them again hard today
• We’ll see what happens with the deal
• They keep tapping us along
• They should sign the deal
• Declined to say he was going to hit bridges and power plants
• They have agreed to not have a nuclear weapon, all they need to do is sign the paper
• On the deal “it’s fully negotiated”

This is obviously escalation, the only thing that gives me some pause is him saying “today” rather than suggesting it’s a campaign. He’s also referring back to the deal.

At the same time, it sounds like he thinks he can bomb them into accepting his deal terms. If anything, this might push them further away.

US stocks are at the lows of the day with the S&P 500 down 1.1%. WTI is quickly to $91.30, up about $1.30 on the headlines.

I also wonder if pre-announcing an attack also gives Iran an off-ramp. You’re obviously not going to kill any senior commanders if you give them an opportunity to go underground with a fore warning.

Other comments:

• On USMCA says “I’m not looking to renew it”
• The US does not need anything Canada or Mexico has
• Mexico and Canada must treat us better
• We’re talking to Canada and Mexico, we will see
• Says he has a meeting with AI companies and wants a government stake
• Will meet with 15 top executives shortly
• “I think they’ll do that” on the gov’t stake
• On Fannie/Freddie says “I have the right to sell it”

Full quote on USMCA “I don’t know that I’m going to renew it because, to be honest with you, the United States does much better. And we don’t need anything that Canada has. We don’t need anything that Mexico has.”

Trump’s wording makes it sound like USMCA needs an affirmative “renewal” in 2026 or it immediately dies. That is not how it works. If one country, including the US, refuses to confirm extension in 2026, USMCA does not immediately end. Instead, it goes into annual reviews. The agreement can keep operating during that period, but with rising uncertainty.

The separate issue is withdrawal. Any party can withdraw from USMCA by giving six months’ written notice. He’s not threatening withdrawal here but that’s a risk.