By Jonatan Randin, Market Analyst at PrimeXBT
Despite stronger dollar momentum, gold remains technically constructive, consolidating near key Fibonacci levels. Meanwhile, gold’s relative performance against Bitcoin shows signs of strength, a familiar pattern during risk-off conditions.
This market outlook explores gold’s behaviour against both the US dollar and Bitcoin, featuring XAU/BTC, one of the newly introduced cross-pairs now available on PrimeXBT, part of the broker’s latest expansion that adds new commodity and crypto-based instruments across its MT5 platform.
Macro perspective: The debasement trade
The United States economy continues to show impressive resilience. Growth remains steady, balance sheets are strong, and consumer spending has held up despite higher interest rates. The ongoing boom in artificial intelligence has only added fuel to this expansion, creating a feedback loop of optimism across equities and risk assets.
This backdrop has produced what many analysts describe as a Goldilocks scenario, an environment that is not too hot and not too cold. Inflation has cooled from its 2022 peaks, but the economy hasn’t rolled over. In these conditions, gold often trades sideways as investors favour risk assets, yet beneath the surface, a structural shift is taking place.
After the Russia–Ukraine war began in February 2022, Western sanctions included freezing Russia’s foreign reserves. This sent a powerful message to policymakers worldwide, assets held within the traditional financial system can be restricted or weaponised. In response, central banks across emerging markets began diversifying away from the US dollar, increasing their gold holdings at the fastest pace in decades.
At the same time, persistent inflation and expanding fiscal deficits continue to erode confidence in fiat currencies. Together, these forces underpin what many now call the debasement trade, the steady accumulation of scarce assets such as gold and Bitcoin as protection against currency devaluation.
Gold represents the traditional store of value, while Bitcoin has emerged as its digital counterpart. Both assets thrive in environments of high liquidity and declining real yields, though they tend to move at different phases of the cycle, gold leading during uncertainty, Bitcoin leading during reflation.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD
On the daily chart, gold is hovering around the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level just below $4,000, aligning with the midpoint of a defined range. This area marks a potential short-term base following the parabolic advance that began after breaking above an ascending triangle on 1 September.
While the recent pullback follows what many view as an euphoric phase, the broader debasement trade narrative remains supportive. In strong bull markets, the 0.382–0.5 retracement levels often act as key support zones, while a deeper correction could extend toward the 0.618 – 0.785 reload zone.
A breakout above $4,040 would confirm a continuation of the long-term uptrend, whereas failure to hold current levels could open the door for a test of the 0.618–0.786 zone, a region often associated with long-term accumulation. These are the critical levels to watch as gold consolidates within its larger bullish structure.
Technical analysis: XAU/BTC
While XAU/USD reflects gold’s performance relative to fiat currency, the XAU/BTC chart offers a unique view of gold’s strength compared with another key asset in the debasement trade, Bitcoin. Both assets tend to move in opposite phases of the liquidity cycle, gold often outperforms when markets turn defensive, while Bitcoin leads during risk-on periods of abundant liquidity.
In the current environment, renewed US dollar strength is adding downside pressure to both gold and risk assets like Bitcoin. However, the interesting observation here is that while XAU/USD has been ranging, XAU/BTC is showing signs of forming a solid swing low. This creates a compelling setup where gold holds steady against the dollar but begins to gain strength relative to Bitcoin, a typical pattern during risk-off conditions.
This dynamic provides a clear example of how traders can use XAU/BTC to capitalise on the interplay between macro fundamentals and market sentiment, combining a bullish long-term view on gold with a short-term defensive move in Bitcoin to capture relative upside potential.
Trading Gold and Synthetic Cross-Pairs with PrimeXBT
Gold’s resilience amid shifting market sentiment is now easier to trade through PrimeXBT’s latest expansion on MT5. The rollout introduces a new range of gold-based pairs, including XAU/BTC and multiple new crosses against major currencies such as EUR, GBP, JPY, alongside other newly added commodity and crypto pairs.
Available across MT5 Standard, ZeroStop, and MT5 Pro accounts, this update combines flexibility and precision, from competitive conditions for everyday traders to advanced features and raw spreads for active traders. With leverage up to 1:1000 on commodities and up to 1:500 on crypto pairs, PrimeXBT continues to deliver accessible, high-performance trading for every strategy.
As gold steadies amid market uncertainty, the addition of XAU/BTC and other metal-based pairs underscores PrimeXBT’s commitment to bridging traditional and digital markets, where macro themes meet trading opportunities.
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