Since May 1, the pair has posted only about six down days. Since June 10, it has closed higher every day, extending an impressive run that has seen the pair climb roughly 693 pips from low to high in just 38 trading days. I may be jinxing the move by pointing it out, but trends tend to be fast, directional, and go much farther than traders expect—and that’s exactly what the USDCAD has been doing.

Technically, the pair has now moved above a modest target at 1.4232 and is setting its sights on the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the 2025 high to the 2026 low at 1.42928. The current price is trading near 1.4241.

So, what would it take to turn the bias around?

On the hourly chart, the first small victory for sellers would come on a move below Monday’s swing high at 1.4193. However, in a trending market, that would only be a start. The minimum requirement for sellers is a break below the rising 100-hour moving average at 1.41729—and staying below it. Ultimately, a move below the 200-hour moving average at 1.4090, which is also rising, would be needed to tilt the short-term bias back to the downside.

Until then, the buyers remain firmly in control. A move below the 100-hour moving average would at least neutralize the short-term bullish bias and take some of the fast, directional characteristics out of the current trend—at least temporarily.

Fundamentally, several factors continue to support the USDCAD’s rise:

• Higher U.S. interest rates and yields: The Fed’s relatively hawkish stance has kept U.S. yields elevated, making the U.S. dollar more attractive than the Canadian dollar.
• Stronger U.S. economic data: Resilient U.S. growth and labor market data have supported the greenback and reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts.
• USMCA trade concerns: Uncertainty surrounding the upcoming review of the USMCA agreement and the potential for trade disputes has weighed on investor sentiment toward Canada and the loonie.
• Lower oil prices and softer Canadian growth: The pullback in crude oil prices and signs of slowing Canadian economic growth have removed an important source of support for the Canadian dollar.

Death, taxes, and a rising USDCAD? For now, the trend is making a pretty strong case for adding a third certainty.