ADP October US employment +42K vs +28K expected


  • Prior was -32K (revised to -29K)

Details

  • Goods producing +9K vs -3K prior
  • Service providing +33K vs -28K prior
  • Trade/transportation/utilities +47K vs -7K prior
  • Leisure/hospitality -6K vs -19K prior
  • Median pay for job stayers 4.5% vs 4.5% prior
  • Median pay for job changers 6.7% vs 6.6% prior

The market started to feel better about jobs after ADP published a weekly employment measure for the first time. It showed a four-week average of 14,250 jobs, or roughly 57K on the month. That indicated a stabilization in the employment market, if not a pickup from the summer lows. With that — and similar indicators — Fed officials began a shift away from dovish rhetoric for the December meeting.

ADP employment

“Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to
what we reported earlier this year,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Meanwhile, pay
growth has been largely flat for more than a year, indicating that shifts in supply and demand are
balanced.”

Fed pricing is unchanged for a December hike at 69% but Treasury yields have edged higher. The US dollar is slightly higher.



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