Has the crash already happened?

Bitcoin fell from $126,000 in October to the mid-$60,000s by late February, a 45% drawdown over five months. That is potential bear market territory. The speculative excess, the leverage, the weak hands, all of that was flushed out before the first missile hit. When the war started, Bitcoin briefly dipped to $63,000 and recovered within 48 hours. The S&P 500 and gold did not have that luxury. The S&P was near record highs with stretched valuations. Gold was near all-time highs. Both had further to fall.

So the outperformance since the war may say less about Bitcoin’s resilience and more about where each asset sat in its own cycle when the shock arrived.

That said, the resilience is real

Even accounting for the pre-war drawdown, Bitcoin has absorbed a remarkable amount of stress without breaking lower. Brent crude surged from $70 to above $112. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed. Over $1 billion in crypto was liquidated after Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum on 22 March. Bitcoin still has not taken out its pre-war lows.

The 89% correlation with the S&P 500 during the sharpest selloff on 19 March shows that Bitcoin still trades as a risk asset on any given headline. But the recovery pattern tells a different story. Bitcoin snaps back within days. The S&P 500 keeps grinding lower in a series of lower highs. Either sellers are simply exhausted, or a different type of buyer is emerging, one focused on currency debasement risk rather than short-term sentiment.

The S&P 500 and gold paint a different picture

The S&P 500’s break below its 200-DMA after 214 sessions is a structural shift. The 6,731 to 6,782 zone is now resistance. JPMorgan sees 6,000 as a near-term downside risk, Goldman Sachs has modelled 5,400 in a severe oil shock. Energy is the only positive sector since the war began.

Gold’s underperformance may be the biggest surprise. Traditionally the go-to geopolitical hedge, it has struggled as rising real yields compete for safe-haven flows.

What matters now

Oil is the transmission mechanism for all three assets. A reopening of Hormuz and Brent retreating toward $80 to $85 would likely push the S&P 500 back toward 6,731 to 6,782, Bitcoin above $75,000, and gold into recovery mode. A prolonged disruption keeps the stagflation narrative alive, with the S&P 500 risking 6,000 to 6,200 and Bitcoin facing $65,000 if rate cut expectations collapse entirely.

The conflict has stress-tested all three assets in real time. Bitcoin’s relative outperformance is genuine, but it started from a much lower base. That context matters.

Trading divergence after the pre-war repricing with PrimeXBT

The key takeaway is not just that Bitcoin has outperformed, but why. Its drawdown happened earlier, while the S&P 500 and gold are still adjusting. That difference in timing is now driving divergence across assets exposed to the same macro event.

For traders, this shifts the focus from direction to sequencing. The question is not simply which asset moves next, but which one has already moved. Bitcoin’s pre-war repricing, equities’ ongoing adjustment, and oil’s role as the trigger create a structure where opportunities emerge from relative positioning rather than outright trend.

This is where the ability to engage across markets becomes particularly relevant. When oil drives inflation expectations, it feeds directly into equities while indirectly shaping Bitcoin through liquidity and policy expectations. Acting on that requires access to all three, not as separate trades, but as part of the same macro setup.

PrimeXBT, a global multi-asset broker, is built for this type of market dynamic. Through its PXTrader 2.0 platform, traders can access equity indices, shares, commodities such as oil, foreign exchange, and crypto futures within a single account. This allows them to respond to how these relationships evolve, rather than reacting to each market in isolation.

In this context, Bitcoin’s role also becomes more flexible. It is not just an asset that may have already priced in the worst, but a source of capital that can be deployed as conditions shift. On platforms like PXTrader 2.0, crypto can be used to gain exposure to traditional markets, allowing traders to adjust positioning as the cycle continues to unfold.

If the first phase of the conflict was about repricing, the next phase is about rotation. And that is typically where a cross-market view becomes most valuable.

Start trading with PrimeXBT.

About PrimeXBT

PrimeXBT is a global multi-asset broker and crypto asset service provider trusted by traders in more than 150 countries. The platform bridges traditional and digital markets within one integrated environment, redefining versatility and innovation in online trading. Clients can access Forex, CFDs on indices, commodities, shares, crypto, and Crypto Futures, as well as buy, store and exchange cryptocurrencies directly. This unified experience extends across both the native PXTrader 2.0 platform and MetaTrader 5, supported by advanced risk-management tools and a wide range of funding options in crypto, fiat and local payment methods. Since 2018, PrimeXBT has focused on empowering traders through broad multi-asset access, fair and transparent conditions, professional-grade technology and dedicated human support. By combining expertise, trust and a client-first approach, PrimeXBT sets a benchmark of excellence in the financial industry and provides traders with the tools they need to trade, grow and succeed with confidence.

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