There are a couple of important data points coming up; Tokyo CPI and China’s official PMIs.

On the central bank front we have the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia March meeting. That meeting produced a back-to back rate hike (following the February hike).

Tokyo CPI

Tokyo inflation data is closely watched by markets as an early signal for Japan’s broader price trends, with national CPI figures typically released around three weeks later due to the longer time required to compile nationwide data.

The Tokyo CPI serves as a sub-index of Japan’s national inflation measure, tracking changes in the prices of goods and services within the Tokyo metropolitan area. Given Tokyo’s status as the country’s largest city and a central economic hub, the data is widely regarded as a leading indicator for national inflation dynamics.

Historically, inflation readings in Tokyo have tended to run slightly above the national average. This reflects the relatively higher cost of living in the capital, where expenses such as rent are generally elevated compared to other regions across Japan.

As a result, Tokyo CPI often provides markets with an early directional cue on underlying price pressures, helping shape expectations ahead of the official nationwide release.

Headline inflation is expected the same in March as in February.

China PMIs

China publishes two main PMI surveys, each capturing different parts of the industrial landscape. The official PMI is compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics and focuses primarily on large, state-owned and government-linked enterprises. Alongside this, the private-sector PMI, produced by S&P Global / RatingDog, places greater emphasis on small and medium-sized enterprises, making it a closely watched gauge of conditions in China’s private economy.

The distinction matters. While the official PMI tends to reflect conditions among larger firms with better access to credit and policy support, the private-sector survey is often seen as more sensitive to shifts in domestic demand, pricing power and employment conditions. Methodological differences also play a role, with the Caixin/RatingDog survey drawing from a broader and more diverse sample of companies. Despite these contrasts, the two PMIs often move in the same direction, offering complementary signals on the health of China’s manufacturing sector.

Today we get the official PMIs for March. Slight improvement is expected, but you’ll notice the non-manufacturing PMI is still expected to remain in contraction.

RBA minutes (March meeting)

The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s March meeting are due later today, with markets likely to scrutinise the detail behind what was a contested decision to deliver a second consecutive 25bp rate hike, following February’s move. The split in views among Board members will be one key focus, particularly around how policymakers weighed the emerging energy shock linked to the Middle East conflict against still-firm domestic demand and inflation pressures.

Attention will centre on how the RBA is assessing the risk of second-round inflation effects from higher energy prices, including through transport and broader input costs, as well as any signs of rising inflation expectations. While central banks typically look through initial fuel-driven price spikes, the minutes may shed light on the threshold for further tightening if these pressures broaden. With markets largely expecting another hike in May, the tone of the discussion, particularly around the balance between inflation risks and potential growth headwinds, will be critical in shaping near-term rate expectations.