San Francisco Fed Pres. Mary Daly is speaking and says that she:

• Supported rate cut

• Rate cut was appropriate

• Still have inflation above target, need to get it down

• Labor market has softened quite a bit

• Need to keep policy modestly restrictive

• Open mind on December

• 50 bps of cuts this year makes Fed better-positioned

• Need to make decision that balances risks

• Not a more divided Fed than before

• Wouldn’t even use the word ‘divided’

• Disagreement is usually what you see when world is uncertain.

• Everyone should 1 of the FOMC to debate and disagree.

• Government data is the only data we get.

• Looking ahead requires talking with people.

• We have less information than used to, but can still make a decision as needed

• Labor market doesn’t look like it’s on a precipice

• Will there was a risk, inflation is is still printing around 3%

• I look at pockets of saw this as a leading indicator.

• If you wait for job market report to tell you if labor market is weak, you are already behind.

• Surprised and pleased by the economic resilience.

The Fed cut rates by 100 basis points in 2024. It may be that they cut by 50 basis points in 2025.

The Fed is currently driving in a fog with less data. That could lead to mistakes if they don’t see something. I am sure the Fed is doing all it can to drive through the fog by getting information from other sources. The Fed is closer to neutral that they were 2 cuts ago.

inflation may be lower than expectations but it is still at 3%.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.



Source link