- Prior +0.8%; revised to +0.2%
At the same time, we’re getting German trade figures released as per the following:
- December trade balance €17.1 billion vs €14.1 billion expected
- Prior €13.1 billion
- Exports +4.0% m/m
- Prior -2.5%
- Imports +1.4% m/m
- Prior +0.8%
That’s a steep drop in German industrial output to wrap up the year, well missing on estimates. The main drag looks to be from a couple of sub-sectors, namely the automotive industry (-8.9%), mechanical engineering (-6.8%), and the maintenance and assembly of machinery (-17.6%). That is only slightly offset by better showings in the manufacture of metal products (+3.2%) and other vehicle manufacturing (aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles +10.5%).
As a whole for 2025, German production in the manufacturing sector was 1.1% lower than in the previous year after being adjusted for calendar effects.
Moving on to the trade numbers, let’s focus on the 2025 year as a whole for a better overview. German exports were seen up 1.0% compared to 2024, clocking in at €1,569.6 billion. Meanwhile, German imports saw a slightly bigger jump by 4.4% for the year to €1,366.9 billion. Put together, that leaves the overall 2025 trade balance at €202.8 billion.
The most notable thing about the trade figures is that China has now replaced the US as Germany’s most important trading partner in 2025. The total trade volume with China was €251.8 billion and well ahead of the US now, which only had a total trade volume of €240.5 billion.
This of course comes amid two diverging factors. The first being German exports to the US are seen declining considerably amid Trump’s tariffs, being down 9% for the year. Meanwhile, German imports from China also picked up amid an influx of key materials as well as electric vehicles – being up 9% for the year.
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