This marks back-to-back decreases in German construction activity to start the new year, following a
brief return to growth at the end of 2025. The civil engineering sub-sector recorded growth but that is in contrast to the sharp declines in work in both the housing and commercial segments.
On the price front, average prices paid for purchases also increased with the pace there being a five-month high. That won’t bode well when you piece it together with the likely increase in short-term prices amid the US-Iran conflict.
HCOB notes that:
“The recession in the residential sector has worsened again. Activity in commercial construction continues to fall rapidly, with
the pace of decline slowing only marginally. In contrast, civil engineering has seen higher construction activity for the fourth
month in a row. However, the pace of expansion has slowed significantly recently. Overall, the deterioration in the
construction sector is also related to the relatively harsh winter, which is likely to have contributed to job losses after more
staff had been hired in the previous months.
“There is unlikely to be any growth in residential and commercial construction in the coming months. This is because the
slump in new orders deepened further in February. Companies were also under pressure from particularly sharp rises in
purchase prices. Higher diesel prices, among other things, are likely to have played an important role here. The war in the
Middle East, which has propelled oil prices higher, does not bode well for inflationary pressures in the near future.
“Subcontractors are also suffering from weak demand, with even less work than in the previous month and generally
considered to be more readily available. However, in view of rising material costs, subcontractors have also continued to
increase their prices, albeit to a lesser extent than in the previous month.
“One ray of hope is the renewed brightening of the outlook for the future. Against the backdrop of ongoing and planned
infrastructure projects and the expectation that next winter will allow for more construction activity, the value of the future
activity index has risen to its highest level since 2020 and well over 50 points.”
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