• RBNZ sees inflation falling toward target as recovery slowly builds, stays dovish
• USD/INR steady as US yields support dollar, RBI offers cap upside
• Japan outlines US investment projects, including $33bn gas power for data centres
• RBNZ’s Breman flags possible year-end hike, but says policy stays accommodative
• Recap – RBNZ holds at 2.25% but brings forward implied timing of first rate hike
• Westpac: China must shift to proactive policy in 2026 to sustain growth
• RBNZ holds OCR at 2.25%, lifts projected rate path modestly higher
• Australian wage growth as expected and the same as prior quarter
• Westpac Leading Index slows to near-flat, signals cooling growth momentum
• Japan January exports surge much higher than expected
• IMF urges Japan to keep raising rates, warns against sales tax cuts
• Japan manufacturers rebound in February Reuters Tankan, services sentiment slips
• Goldman lifts AUD/USD forecasts to 0.74 as RBA hawkish stance supports outlook
• Goldman upgrades Japan to overweight, lifts TOPIX target to 4,300
• NZ data: Q4 PPI output +0.1% q/q (exp +0.7%, prior +0.6%) & inputs -0.5% (+0.5%, +0.2%)
• investingLive Americas market news wrap: Gold/oil tumble after Iran signals deal progress

At a glance:

• Japan exports surged at the fastest pace in over three years; trade minister flagged major US investment projects.

• Yen weakened modestly on the session but moves were contained.

• Australia’s Q4 wages rose 0.8% q/q; annual growth steady at 3.4%, little sign of acceleration.

• NZD led FX losses after the RBNZ struck a more dovish tone and reinforced an accommodative stance.

• AUD slipped alongside NZD; broader FX subdued amid regional holidays.

• Gold pushed back above US$4,900; oil traded quietly.

Japan’s exports rose at their fastest annual pace in more than three years, with shipments to China and the European Union driving the strength. The upbeat trade data added to evidence of resilience in Japan’s external sector. Later in the session, Trade Minister Akazawa outlined several sizeable US investment projects spanning energy infrastructure and advanced materials, reinforcing the theme of deeper Japan–US economic alignment. The yen softened on the day, though the overall move was relatively modest.

In Australia, wages grew at a moderate and steady clip in the fourth quarter. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the wage price index rose 0.8% q/q, matching the prior quarter and consensus expectations. Annual growth edged up to 3.4% from a revised 3.3%, remaining within the 3.2%–3.6% range seen over the past six quarters. The figures suggest stable wage pressures rather than renewed acceleration, leaving markets looking ahead to January labour force data on Thursday for a clearer steer on momentum.

The New Zealand dollar was the clear underperformer in Asian trade. Sellers stepped in after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the OCR steady and reiterated that monetary policy will need to remain accommodative for some time. The Bank’s tone was read as more dovish than expected, and Governor Breman reinforced that impression at the press conference. While she acknowledged a year-end rate hike was possible, she stressed that it is not built into the Bank’s projected rate path and would depend on materially stronger economic conditions and firmer inflation pressures. The near-term baseline, she emphasised, remains one of patience.

AUD tracked lower alongside the kiwi, though losses were more contained.

Elsewhere, major FX pairs were largely subdued, with China, Singapore and Hong Kong still on holiday. Oil price action was muted, while gold managed a renewed push above US$4,900.