It’s been a very boring session amid lack of key economic releases and limited newsflow. The only highlights were the remarks from ECB’s de Guindos and the US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.

ECB’s de Guindos dismissed the recent surge in the EUR/USD exchange rate labelling it as “not dramatic at all”. That’s in contrast to last year’s comments where he said that a rise above 1.20 would be problematic. Nonetheless, he added that they do not target the exchange rate but monitor it closely. In terms of monetary policy, he just repeated the same old stuff and how the ECB remains in a “good place” with interest rates and inflation.

The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index missed expectations slightly but the highlight of the report was the new NFIB Small Business Employment Index, which translates multiple jobs-related questions into one single number. Currently, the index tells a story of a balanced labor market, coming in about 1.5 points above its historical average (101.6 current vs 100 average).

Given the lack of catalysts, we had rangebound price action across most major markets.

In the American session, the highlights will be the weekly US ADP data, the US Retail Sales, the US Import/Export prices and the US Employment Cost Index. The weekly ADP was a market moving indicator only on the first releases (during the October shutdown), then it stopped being important. Besides, we already got the monthly ADP for January, so today’s release won’t tell us anything new.

The US Retail Sales M/M is expected at 0.4% vs 0.6% prior, while the Ex-Autos M/M figure is seen at 0.3% vs 0.5% prior. The more important Retail Control measure is expected at 0.4% vs 0.4% prior. Note that this is the December release, so it’s old data and won’t change anything for the market pricing. Besides, Retail Sales is a volatile indicator and although it’s a market-moving release, it rarely changes trends.

The US Employment Cost Index for Q4 is expected at 0.8% vs 0.8% prior. This is the most comprehensive indicator on wage growth and the Fed pays attention to it. Unfortunately, it’s not as timely as the average hourly earnings data.

Lastly, we get the US Import and Export prices data but that’s rarely a market moving release. Besides, it’s December’s data so the market will likely ignore it.