Fars is out with the following report:

An informed source, in an interview with Fars reporter following up on the negotiation axes, stated:
Tehran considers the option of negotiating with Washington off the table until a complete ceasefire is established in Lebanon, and it has strongly asserted this position.


According to this informed source, one of the operational options on the table is keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed. He added: “According to statistics and field monitoring since this morning, it is clear that this strategic maritime route remains closed, and this situation will continue until a full ceasefire with Lebanon is achieved.”


It is worth mentioning that following Iran’s decisive positions, clear signs of Netanyahu’s retreat are becoming evident.
Vitkoff’s remarks this afternoon recommending Netanyahu to accept the field realities, as well as Netanyahu’s recent statements which, though veiled threats, clearly indicate compliance with the Lebanon ceasefire, are signs of a shift in the American-Zionist stance.

Iran obviously thinks it has some leverage here and Trump and Netanyahu have already moved in the direction of a ceasefire. It also seems as though that was part of the original deal, at least if you believe Pakistan’s President.

At the same time, the deal required Iran to open the Strait and they haven’t done that either.

The main thing the market is hanging on (and I believe correctly) is that Trump wants this war ended and the Strait opened in order to lower prices of oil. He’s ready to move on to the ‘next conquest’ and military operations that are possibly less complicated.

The issue is that Trump’s negotiating style always relies on threats and brinkmanship and there is still so much to settle in terms of the future of Hormuz, sanctions and Iran. That sets up a difficult negotiation and it’s complicated by Netanyahu, who has an agenda of his own.

Ultimately, it looks like Lebanon is headed for a ceasefire and that negotiations will take place on the weekend but it’s all fragile.

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