The USD is little changed to start the North American session, with traders showing hesitation ahead of the next catalyst. The EURUSD remains confined within a tight 20-pip range — exceptionally narrow and indicative of a market waiting for a shove in either direction.

In USDJPY, sellers made a push below the 200-hour moving average but failed to sustain momentum. The pair has since rebounded and now sits between the 100-hour MA at 153.918 and the 200-hour MA at 153.23, leaving short-term direction in balance.

Meanwhile, the GBPUSD has stalled its slide from yesterday near a modest swing level at 1.3013, falling short of the key swing area between 1.2970–1.2988. The 50% retracement of the recent rise sits just below at 1.2943 — a key level for sellers aiming to extend downside momentum. On the topside, there’s little resistance until last week’s low near 1.3100, followed by stronger resistance at the 38.2% retracement and swing level near 1.3142.

In the video, I break down each of the three major pairs — EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD — outlining the technical bias, targets, and risk levels that matter most for today’s trade setups.

At 8:15 AM, the market will be treated to a private employment report with the ADP National Employment index. It is expected to rise by 28K vs -32K last week. The ADP recently changed including.

• Weekly Preliminary Estimate: In October 2025, ADP began publicly releasing a preliminary estimate of U.S. private-sector employment on a weekly cadence. This estimate provides a four-week moving average of weekly job changes, available every Tuesday, and is designed to provide a high-frequency view of the labor market with a two-week lag.
• Contextual Insight: This weekly data has gained particular relevance during periods when the official government BLS reports are delayed (e.g., due to a government shutdown), providing markets with a timely indicator of labor market conditions

The changes reflect an effort to provide a more accurate, detailed, and timely picture of the U.S. private-sector labor market using ADP’s extensive, real-world payroll data.

At 10 AM the ISM non-manufacturing data will be released with the expectation of 50.8 vs 50.0 last month.

At 10:30 the weekly oil inventory data will be released with crude oil expected at a build of 0.603M vs -6.858M last week.

• Dow industrial average is +21 points
• S&P is down -2 points
• Nasdaq is down -23 points.

In the US debt market:

• 2 year yield 3.571%, -1.2 basis points
• 5 year yield 3.694%, -0.9 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.083%, -0.8 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.668%, -0.3 basis points.