As North American traders enter the session, markets are relatively mixed. U.S. equities are showing modest divergence in pre-market trading, yields are little changed, and oil prices are higher by roughly $3. The USD initially moved higher before giving those gains back, and is now trading near unchanged levels.

However, as is often the case ahead of a major event, price action is telling the real story. Traders are positioning cautiously ahead of tomorrow’s Fed decision, where the central bank is widely expected to leave rates unchanged.

On the economic calendar today, pending home sales will be released at 10 AM ET, with expectations at -0.5% versus -0.8% last month (index previously at 70.9).

Geopolitically, tensions remain elevated. The White House continues to signal optimism that the conflict could end soon. However, comments from NEC Director Kevin Hassett suggesting that resolution means “Iran will not hurt the world again” imply a potentially prolonged and uneven path forward. If the situation evolves similarly to prior conflicts (Israel/Hamas conflict and it’s path – this is a US/Israel/Iran conflict), traders should expect a start-stop pattern in risk sentiment. Adding another layer of uncertainty is the upcoming November mid-term election and shifting public sentiment, which may increase political pressure to reach a resolution sooner rather than later.

EURUSD

The EURUSD moved higher yesterday, testing its 100-hour moving average, where sellers leaned. The subsequent move lower found support near 1.1468, a key level going back to November 2025.

The pair has since rebounded and is now testing the 100-hour MA again (currently near 1.1506).

USDJPY

USDJPY rotated lower yesterday but found support near its rising 100-hour moving average. Buyers stepped in again during the Asian session, but upside momentum stalled near 159.447, corresponding with the January high.

Sellers have since pushed the pair back below the 100-hour MA (159.17).

GBPUSD

GBPUSD mirrored EURUSD price action. The pair tested the 100-hour moving average yesterday and stalled, before rotating lower and breaking below key support between 1.3298–1.3305, and then 1.3282.

In recent trading, price has rebounded and is oscillating around the 100-hour MA (1.3324), making it the key barometer for today:

• Above → bullish bias, targeting the 200-hour MA at 1.3353

• Below → bearish bias resumes