Trump is lamenting the lack of help in reopening Hormuz:

Without the U.S.A., NATO IS A PAPER TIGER! They didn’t want to join the fight to stop a Nuclear Powered Iran. Now that fight is Militarily WON, with very little danger for them, they complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don’t want to help open the Strait of Hormuz, a simple military manoeuver that is the single reason for the high oil prices. So easy for them to do, with so little risk. COWARDS, and we will REMEMBER! President DONALD J. TRUMP

There is some generally good news here:

1) The US appears to be willing to do it alone

2) Trump sounds confident it can be done

3) He sounds ready to declare victory

So despite all the unfriendly rhetoric here, this is a positive post for risk assets and should be negative for oil. That said, a US F35 (or two) were struck yesterday by Iran and they hit neighbours with ballistic missiles. The idea they’re defeated sounds premature but we will have to wait and see.

May WTI crude is down 19-cents to $95.22 but well above the low of $92.47 from early in Asia.

The S&P 500 is down 0.5%.

I think there is some apprehension going into the weekend because Trump has tended to escalate on Friday nights once the market closes and he’s an unpredictable man.

The downside here is that the possibility of trump saying “mission accomplished” is dwindling and the US is now committing itself to reopen Hormuz, for however long that takes. Organizing the military escorts of the tankers is also problematic and it’s hard to see how you don’t lose the Iranian barrels now, even if you regain the ones from other gulf states, so it still leaves the world short of oil.