US initial jobless claims 209K vs 205K expected

It’s another great report, especially on the continuing claims side which could point to lower unemployment rate.

The US jobless claims have been pointing to a “low hire, low fire” labour market in 2025 as initial claims remained stable, while continuing claims reached new cycle highs.

More recently, the jobless claims data showed a notable improvement. In fact, initial claims fell to cycle lows and the uptrend in continuing claims started to reverse. It’s still early to say, but it looks like the labour market is getting better and better as business uncertainty eases.

WHAT DO JOBLESS CLAIMS MEASURE?

The US Jobless Claims indicator is a high-frequency economic report that tracks how many people are applying for state unemployment benefits. It is considered one of the most timely gauges of the health of the US labor market because it is released every Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET, providing data that is only a few days old. The report, issued by the Department of Labor, is divided into two primary categories:

1. Initial Jobless Claims

The number of new (first-time) applications for unemployment insurance filed by individuals who have recently lost their jobs.

This is a leading indicator. It provides the earliest signal of a shifting economy; a steady rise in initial claims often precedes a recession, while a decline suggests the economy is starting to recover.

2. Continuing Jobless Claims

The number of people who have already filed an initial claim and are still receiving benefits.

This is a lagging or coincident indicator. It measures the “persistence” of unemployment. If continuing claims stay high, it means unemployed workers are having a hard time finding new jobs.